Exploring Uncertainty — Al Ingram

I’ve had some rather shaky experiences with uncertainty. One recent one was receiving a medical test result that indicated a potentially serious condition that required further diagnostic tests that took weeks to set up and to get results. During that time, I experienced a wide range of emotional states including anxiety, denial, determination, catastrophication, curiosity, avoidance, helplessness, victimization, and acceptance, all before I received several sets of results. I did eventually satisfactorily resolve as much uncertainty as can be reasonably expected.

So I decided to explore and write about “uncertainty”.

Miriam-Webster defines “uncertain” as: not known beyond doubt: dubious; not having certain knowledge: doubtful; not clearly identified or defined; not constant: variable, fitful; indefinite, indeterminate; not certain to occur: problematical; not reliable: untrustworthy.

Here are some examples of uncertainty you might have encountered:

Uncertain about the stability of your team and their individual commitment to staying with you.
Uncertain of your own job security and career progression.
Uncertain of the impact of rapid technological advances on your professional role and your privacy and security.
Uncertain about the purpose of a meeting your manager has called with no agenda.
Uncertain about the impact of a high-level organizational change on your project.
Uncertain of the impact of social or political changes on your work and life.
Uncertain (in quantum mechanics) of both the position and the momentum of a particle such as an electron simultaneously and with high accuracy (“Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle”) *
“If there’s one thing that’s certain in business, it’s uncertainty.” – Stephen Covey

Objectively, at a given point in time, you are either certain or uncertain about something. Being certain might be a cause for stress (think about signing a $800K mortgage loan agreement), but that’s not what we’re exploring. Being uncertain is also a cause for stress when you’re afraid of what might become certain.

Consider these fearful, stressful, negative ways you might have reacted to uncertainty:

Ignoring it or procrastinating. Only being open to considering the “good” things that might happen, not the “bad” things. Deflecting any discussion away from it. And knowing deep inside that it isn’t going to turn out well.
Attempting to control what might happen by implementing detailed risk management strategies and tactics, many of which turned out to be irrelevant, and sometimes you overlooked something important.
Accepting it as a challenge and projecting an optimistic enthusiasm and determination to define and deal with whatever happens, and being exhausted by it all. Or walking away from it if/because there’s no way to achieve success.
Setting aside messy emotional reactions and considerations and taking a logical, systematic (and ultimately unsuccessful) approach to defining and eliminating the uncertainties.
Relentlessly anticipating and focusing on what could go wrong, and being skeptical that anything could go OK.
Aligning with and encouraging and admiring someone else who is facing the uncertainty to earn or stay in good standing with them.
Finding other more interesting or less boring things to do than face it.
Judging the whole thing to be an unacceptable mess that needs to have order and balance brought to it, and frustration when you can’t.
Just feeling helplessly that what will happen will inevitably have an awful impact on you, as usual.

Which of these have you experienced? What was the impact of your negative reaction in your work or life?

Buddhist teacher Pema Chödrön writes, “Looking deeper, we could say that the real cause of suffering is not being able to tolerate uncertainty.” *

So what can you do to tolerate uncertainty or otherwise reduce or eliminate the stress and suffering from it?

Here are some observations, examples, and approaches:

Getting Calm First

First things first. Start by shifting out of the anxiety or other negative emotion that hijacked you in reaction to uncertainty. There are many techniques for this, including breathing, meditation, PQ Reps (Positive Intelligence® *), and tapping, essentially to bring your consciousness back to full sensory awareness and away from negative emotions and the negative chatter of your mind. Depending on the degree of your negativity, it may take more than a few moments or minutes to get there, and you may need to continue to actively shift to restore and maintain it.

Getting Certain

Consider what you can do with a calm, positive, discerning mindset, to resolve uncertainty.

Get curious. Get creative. Do some research or experimenting to try to define what’s unknown. Find out how (or if) others in a similar situation found certainty.

Set an effort, cost, and time limit and acknowledge what uncertainty remains.

Surrendering to Uncertainty

“Whether you fear uncertainty and let it trigger stress responses or embrace uncertainty and let it elicit relaxation responses is your choice. Personally, I’ve come to recognize the beauty in uncertainty. While one face of uncertainty is the vast, scary unknown, the flip side of uncertainty is infinite possibility.” — Lissa Rankin

Sometimes the uncertainty is such that you can’t make sense of it, much less see past it, or identify what to do about it. Get calm (see above). Then try being present with it, letting it exist, surrendering to it. Even a little bit at a time helps. Keep at it. It can take time.

Looking for the Gift and Opportunity of Uncertainty

“Life is about not knowing, having to change, taking the moment and making the best of it, without knowing what’s going to happen next.” – Gilda Radner

“Which is true: ‘Uncertainty is bad’ or ‘Uncertainty is good’?” The answer is: “Whichever you believe becomes true.” – derived from Positive Intelligence® *

“We crave explanations for most everything, but innovation and progress happen when we allow ourselves to embrace uncertainty.” – Simon Sinek

“Let go of certainty. The opposite isn’t uncertainty. It’s openness, curiosity and a willingness to embrace paradox, rather than choose up sides. The ultimate challenge is to accept ourselves exactly as we are, but never stop trying to learn and grow.” ― Tony Schwartz

Finding the gift and opportunity in any challenge or situation is one of the key practices of Positive Intelligence®. *

Your fear, uncertainty, and discomfort are leading indicators of growth opportunities. While they often and naturally lead to initial reactions of or related to flight, fight or freeze, you don’t have to stop there. By exploring and getting fully aware (conscious) and accepting of whatever might happen, you have the opportunity to look for ways to further respond and move forward. A great starting point is asking yourself “how can what happens work FOR me, that would be a gift and opportunity?”

When you’re uncertain about the stability of your organization because people might be leaving, a gift might be that you get to mentor and support someone advancing successfully in their career by moving to a new job. Another gift might be that if someone leaves you get to hire someone else who brings a different perspective and helpful familiarity with different tools and processes.

On a personal level, a possible gift of experiencing a challenging medical condition is participating in a study that is designed to determine the certainty of the effectiveness and reduction of side effects of a treatment program.

There’s an old story about a Farmer and his Horse * where alternating and seemingly “good” and “bad” things happen. Throughout the tale the farmer remains unperturbed, saying “good luck, bad luck, who knows?” It’s a strong reminder that you can’t be certain that whatever happens is the end of the story. Anything is possible, including gifts and opportunities

Anticipating Uncertainty

Sometimes you can reduce the possibility of creating or influencing uncertainty.

For example, to anticipate and reduce negative reactions uncertainty in communication, recognize that ambiguity or incompleteness of your communication may result in negative reactions in those who receive it. Like a request for a meeting with no stated agenda or purpose. Be as clear and complete as possible and check to be sure you are understood.

To reduce or eliminate anxiety or the negative impact on work quality and quantity resulting from uncertainties in organizational change, you can continue to honor and support the existing organization/ work/ approach/ plan until there is certain material evidence that differs from what already exists. Stay on course until you receive direction to change it.

Getting Geeky about Uncertainty

“There is something about the mindset of a scientist that is different – an awareness of uncertainty, modeling, proof.” - Joseph Stiglitz

Be like a scientist. The scientific discipline of proof and re-proof and peer review before believing something to be highly probable (much less declared as “truth”) may not work in parts of our culture. But at least cultivating an awareness of uncertainty, that things may not be what you expect, or may change, would make a difference.

“When uncertain you are what to do, then consider you might what Yoda would do.”

Yoda is a pinnacle example of a Jedi Master, a leader who has compassion, humor, awareness, perspective, focus, non-judgment, and a communication style that listening to carefully you must. Follow Jedi Master Yoda, or the example of another leader (fictional or real) who has mastered uncertainty.

Uncertainty is inevitable. Although much of what is or might happen is beyond your ability to know or change or influence, you can change how you respond to it. A positive mindset empowers you to face uncertainty with equanimity, to accept things beyond your control or knowing, and to be resilient and adaptable whatever happens.

Facing uncertainty, shifting out of a negative mindset, and turning challenges into gifts and opportunities, are some of the practices I coach, especially (but not exclusively) for mid-level high-tech leaders. If you are feeling inspired to build, reestablish, or further develop these and other leadership practices and get happy, again, check out my Energy and Mindset Reboot Program. Click here to find out what it can do for you in a free 30-minute Discovery Session.

“Life is uncertain. Eat dessert first.” – Ernestine Ulmer

* References:

“uncertain,” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/uncertain. Accessed 8/4/2023.

“uncertainty principle,” Merriam-Webster.com Dictionary, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/uncertainty%20principle. Accessed 8/4/2023.

Isaac Asimov, Foundation and Earth, CH.6 Pt.2 https://tinyurl.com/24pn2s5v

Are These Bad Times or Good Times? The Story of the Zen Farmer https://mindfulness.com/mindful-living/are-these-bad-times-or-good-times-the-story-of-the-zen-farmer

Shirzad Chamine, Positive Intelligence: Why Only 20% of Teams and Individuals Achieve Their True Potential and How You Can Achieve Yours, Geenleaf Book Group Press, Austin, TX, ©2012 https://a.co/d/3NCZUXZ

Blog: Being a happier high tech leader.